EXCLUSIVE: Just like Lionsgate fired up the early summer box office with their blast off of Michael ($97.2M U.S., $218.8M WW), they’re poised to be the saviors of the Thanksgiving box office as their highly anticipated prequel The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping has hit tracking with a floor of $60M+ U.S. and rivals betting that the 3-day goes substantially higher, possibly even north of $70M.
The movie, from Hunger Games franchise director Francis Lawrence, starts shooting arrows into cinemas on Nov. 20.
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A domestic start like that for a sixth film in a feature series would be fantastic since it would be an upward turn from the opening of its previous chapter, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes which bowed to $44.6M stateside (and legged out to $166.3M domestic, and $394M WW). Note that movie was based on a darker tale in the Suzanne Collins novel series about the origins of notorious villain Coriolanus Snow. That novel posted slower sales during its Covid release, not to mention the film bowed soon after the Actors Strike ended in 2023. Lionsgate had the first big Hollywood premiere with stars post-strike (and they also received a SAG waiver for their cast to promote as an indie company), however, the lead-up and drum roll here for Sunrise on the Reaping is much greater, read there was a recent London fan event with cast and there’s an L.A. one next week. Not to mention, this is a highly anticipated story in the franchise as it revisits the world of Panem 24 years before the events of The Hunger Games, starting on the morning of the reaping of the 50th Hunger Games, also known as the Second Quarter Quell. Joseph Zada stars as the younger version of Woody Harrelson’s Haymitch Abernathy and Jesse Plemmons as the younger version of Philip Seymour Hoffman’s Plutarch Heavensbee. Another halo working in favor of Sunrise on the Reaping are the reported cameos of OG stars Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson.
Another lightning rod indicator of success is Sunrise on the Reaping‘s trailer views, which was the second most watched trailer ever for a Lionsgate movie behind Michael, the prequel racking up 109M views in its first 24 hours.
In regards to first choice, Sunrise on the Reaping definitely hot with women, but men under 25 aren’t far behind. Women under 25 are stellar on par with Wicked, higher than Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and close to 40% above Songbirds and Snakes. Overall first choice is higher than Wicked ($112.5M), Michael ($97.2M), The Devil Wears Prada 2 ($76.7M), and on par with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice ($111M).
The biggest domestic opening in the Hunger Games franchise belongs to 2013’s Catching Fire with $158M.
The Hunger Games franchise encompasses five novels that have sold more than 100 million copies worldwide and been translated into 52 languages, as well as the blockbuster film franchise that has grossed more than $3.4 billion at the global box office spanning five movies. Sunrise on the Reaping sold over 1.5 million copies worldwide in its first week, marking the biggest debut for any title in Collins’ Hunger Games book series. In the U.S. alone, the book sold 1.2 million copies, more than twice the opening sales of The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and over three times that of Mockingjay.
Sunrise on the Reaping stars Ralph Fiennes, Glenn Close, Kieran Culkin, Elle Fanning, Mckenna Grace, Maya Hawke, Whitney Peak and Kelvin Harrison Jr.
While we’ve been racing toward a potential $10 billion year at the domestic box office, the last two Novembers, which had Wicked, Moana 2 Gladiator 2 in 2024 and Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 last year, will be very hard to compete with. The five-day 2024 Thanksgiving stretch was a record with $424.9M. Last year’s 5-day Thanksgiving haul was the fourth best ever at the North American box office with $292.8M.