Todd Phillips’ musically infused sequel Joker: Folie à Deux opens this week and is currently not expected to emulate the business of 2019’s Warner Bros movie Joker, which ultimately wound up as the second highest-grossing R-rated movie of all time at $1.07 billion, scoring 11 Oscar nominations and winning two including for Joaquin Phoenix as Best Actor.
As for the sequel, so far worldwide looks better than domestic at $140 million, with a now lower-projected $55M-$60M at 4,000 U.S. theaters with all the tricks of Imax and PLF screens. The original domestic forecast was at $70M+ when it hit three-week tracking.
The first Joker blew past its $80M domestic projection with the highest opening of all time at $96.2M, and outstripped its $155M worldwide forecast with $248.2M (2019 figures unadjusted for inflation and currency swings).
Still, with a net production cost of $190M+, Joker: Folie à Deux‘s expected business at this point isn’t bad for exhibition, and not necessarily bad for the movie itself. Who doesn’t want a movie that opens to $55M and $140M at the October box office? Anyone not want this? Why so serious, industry? Because they have Dark Knight franchise expectations business-wise for the sequel, and many need to remember it’s a sequel to an R-rated Taxi Driver-like social commentary starring a DC villain that just so happened to catch a wave and overperform.
The question is whether fanboys are on board for a Gaga-Phoenix musical duet feature that’s nearly as dark in tone as the first movie. No one expected the first Joker to go wild in its opening; there was a fear at the time that there would be Dark Knight Rises copycat shootings. All those worries were dashed once the movie opened.
Similar to the first Joker, Warners world premiered this sequel at Venice, though that didn’t help in regards to reviews, which stand at 62% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes (vs. the first movie’s 69% with critics). This hasn’t helped presales, which currently indicate a lower opening than $55M, though sources believe Joker 2 can get to its current forecast. Previews start Thursday at 3 p.m. Stateside for Joker 2 has first choice first for older males, followed by younger males under 25, then older females over 25.
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Gaga’s sole previous tentpole, the Oscar-winning A Star Is Born, opened to $42.9M at the October 2018 box office. She looks to best that figure with Joker 2, which should become her best film opening domestically.
Hoping to bring her Little Monsters to theaters, Gaga dropped a companion album to the film, Harlequin, last Friday.
Joker 2 could also score the best opening for a live-feature musical that’s not a Disney one, potentially ahead of November 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody, which saw a $51M start.
Joker: Folie à Deux kicked off Tuesday in its first offshore market, Korea, with a No. 1 start of $1.3M. Keep in mind they’re benefitting from a local holiday. Korea was also the lead weekend opener on Joker, which at the time was surprising given it wasn’t clear how the darker elements of the film would play there. This time around, it may just be the musical factor that leads audiences to lean in. And, there’s another holiday ahead this week.
Overall, the rest of offshore rollout begins in earnest Wednesday in 14 markets, including majors France and Italy. Thursday adds 45 with Germany, Australia, Brazil and Mexico among the majors. Friday brings Spain and the UK into the frame.
The expectation for this first wave is $80M-$85M+ internationally. The 2019 Joker opened to $139M offshore in like-for-likes coming off the heat of being the Venice Golden Lion winner.
After this weekend, on deck are Japan on October 11 and China on October 16. As we’ve noted, the first Joker did not release in China.
Meanwhile, DreamWorks Animation and Universal’s The Wild Robot looks to have a second weekend that’s close to $20M, down 45%, after overperforming to a $35M opening. The Chris Sanders-directed movie made $2.2M Monday for a running cume of $38M.