NRG, Screen Engine and other three-week-in-advance box office tracking services are reporting a domestic box office opening for Disney/Marvel Studios‘ first R-rated movie, Deadpool & Wolverine, at $160 million-$165 million, which would not only be the best opening year-to-date but also a record start for a R-rated movie.
The first Deadpool released in 2016 owns the record for the biggest R-rated opening at the box office with $132.4M.
Wait, what about that $200M projection we reported a few weeks ago from tracking service Quorum? That still stands per that analytics group. Even if Deadpool & Wolverine isn’t as sharp as that projection, it’s still bound for a fantastic start. No pressure, but many have exclaimed that summer isn’t starting until the action comedy opens. What many tracking services keep missing of late is the walk-up business from Latino and Hispanic moviegoers, and that’s where Deadpool & Wolverine can slice past the current outlook we’re seeing today.
Disney feels comfortable with the $160M+ range for the Ryan Reynolds-Hugh Jackman team-up with filmmaker Shawn Levy. Current presales before the movie’s July 26 opening are at $19M, which is 15% behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($187.4M) and ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($118.4M) and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($181.3M).
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Deadpool & Wolverine is, of course, very male, and Disney is looking to expand the female audience for the movie. In a recent social post, Reynolds’ merc with a mouth channeled Taylor Swift‘s Evermore album cover, spurring rumors that the singer would make an appearance in the film.
Reynolds and Jackman just started their global tour for the movie, hitting Shanghai today for a fan event and a photo call.
The previous two Deadpool movies earned A Cinemascores.