Before the strikes completely turn the theatrical release calendar inside-out, the fall box office isn’t going to just give up. Following what is expected to be a robust $30M+ four-day for Sony’s The Equalizer 3 over Labor Day weekend, New Line’s The Nun II is expected to file a post Labor Day weekend start of $30M+.
It’s still early for the film campaign wise with only two teaser posters released and the YouTube trailer at 26M views (versus The Meg 2‘s official trailer at 43M on the Warner Bros channel), so there’s a chance for upside. You’ll remember that Warner Bros began owning this post-Labor day weekend space with horror movies, starting with the Stephen King It movies back in 2017 when It: Chapter One posted September’s best opening ever at $123.4M. It Chapter: Two at $91M in that post-holiday space is the second biggest opening for the first month of fall, followed b 2018’s The Nun at $53.8M which reps the fourth highest domestic B.O. opening for September, but the best ever in New Line’s The Conjuring universe.
Right now tracking stats for The Nun II look similar to Insidious: The Red Door, ($33M opening) despite the fact that the former is an R-rated movie, and the latter PG-13. Translation: Unaided awareness (the organic stat where those polled actually name a studio’s a movie as what they want to see without any prompting) is very hot among women under 25. The Nun II in unaided awareness is also higher than Blumhouse’s Black Phone ($23.6M), Paramount’s Smile ($22.6M) and New Line’s Evil Dead Rise ($24.5M).
The Nun wound up being the highest grossing movie ever in The Conjuring universe on a global basis with $365.5M. At $117.4M domestic, The Nun is the second highest in the series behind The Conjuring‘s $137.4M.
The Nun II is directed by Michael Chaves. It’s Chaves’ third movie to be directed for James Wan’s Atomic Monster after 2019’s The Curse of La Llorona and 2021’s The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It.