‘Sonic the Hedgehog 3’ Eyes $70M Opening, ‘Mufasa’ $35M

SATURDAY AM: Who knew that hedgehogs were predatory creatures that could spring out of the ground and take down the king of the jungle in full?

Paramount’s $122M production Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is the alpha male gorilla heading into the Christmas frame with a $70.5M opening, well ahead of Disney’s $200M prequel Mufasa which is nothing to sing ‘Hakuna Matata’ about with a $36M-$38M estimated start. Mufasa gets an A CinemaScore to Mufasa‘s A-.

On Friday alone with previews, Mufasa did close to half the business than Sonic the Hedgehog 3 did, $13.3M to $25.75M.

Today of course will determine if Sonic 3 notches the best opening in franchise, beating its predecessor’s $72.1M. Even if the threequel settles in the high $60M, it’s still above the high $50Ms-$60M forecast.

It’s truly a PG-laden Christmas with four PG movies in the marketplace between Mufasa, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, Wicked and Moana 2. Disney’s surfer girl sequel is eating about $12.7M of Mufasa‘s lunch in her fourth weekend. Sonic 3 stands out as the one big draw for boys at 66%. Moana 2 and Mufasa are both female skewing, the latter pulling in 53%.

Even with a Christmas season that can yield as high as a 7x multiple off a movie’s weekend opening, this is a bad showing for Disney in the pre-Christmas frame, galaxies far, far away from the mega Avatar 2 $134M to near Star Wars $250M openings in this corridor — and it’s a prequel to Jon Favreau’s (is it live action? Gosh, if that’s not a real lion) suped up animated 2019 Lion King which brought audiences in like gazelles to the tune of a $191.7M opening. Disney, we can’t deny how far off Mufasa is from that opening: down -81%! At a $36M-$38M level on Mufasa especially with its budget, sorry, Disney, but these are Joker: Folie a Deux numbers…but with very good audience scores.

There is an argument to be made that families will come out Christmas Day for Mufasa, however, per PostTrak, they’re already going at 39% (combined parents and children) to Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s 34%.

I’m not doubting that more families will go to Mufasa in the upcoming days, but even at a 7x multiple, that gets the prequel’s final U.S./Canada number somewhere near $260M. Hopefully overseas, where Lion King has reigned, will get Mufasa past breakeven. A $180M global opening was forecasted for Mufasa. It’s bound to come in lower.

Unfortunately, former Disney CEO Bob Chapek isn’t around, so we can’t blame this on him. Iger spoke about “less is more” in the post-Covid feature slate mission, and quality over quantity, not to mention sequels to only the biggest pieces of IP. However, if you’re going to touch the third holy rail that is Lion King, and expand on the canon, you gotta go back to the OGs. Meaning, Disney, you should have brought in Jeffrey Katzenberg to produce and Elton John to do the songs. C’mon, Disney, you know this having brought back Return of the Jedi scribe Lawrence Kasdan, George Lucas tangentially, and the original Star Wars cast for Force Awakens. There was a syncopation in regard to toe-tapping songs and a finite amount of potent emotional plot points in 1994’s Lion King. As stunning as the animation is in Mufasa (an avalanche! Oh, no, lion cub in the river!) the movie is bogged down in way too much backstory, I didn’t even realize when the Simba storyline bled into young Mufasa. And, sorry, the songs are forgettable. Mufasa makes Moana 2 look like Godfather II. You cannot feel any love tonight in Mufasa.

There is no such thing as a coincidence as one family elder once told me, and Sean Bailey’s exit as the Disney Motion Pictures Group president back in February just leaves me curious. That said we can’t deny him the massive legacy of hits he’s delivered in the live-action reboots of Lion King, Jungle Book, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin — the list goes on. What’s odd is that the minute he departed, there were whispers that Disney would veer from its recipe of re-imaging Disney vault animated classics into live action ones, this despite plans for a fully humanized Moana. That business plan of live-action movies is a smart one, the question is whether the well has run dry; whether some of the vintage plays aren’t prime big enough draws for the big screen, read how Lady & The Tramp and Pinocchio went to Disney+ (smart move on the latter, Disney, live-action Pinocchio movies never do well, just ask Robert Benigni).

Note Disney has posted lower numbers with a legacy prequel/sequel over the Christmas period, that being the 2018 sequel Mary Poppins Returns which did a 3-day of $23.5M off a 5-day of $32.3M (near $50M if you count the week when Christmas fell on the seventh day). However, that was a $130M production to a 1964 Disney classic property. Mufasa is a prequel to one of the highest grossing movies in history, that being Favreau’s version of the Lion King which posted a $191.7M opening (for a $543.6M domestic, massive $1.66 billion global final).

The comp here on Mufasa seems to be Wonka which opened to $39M and did a 5.6x multiple for a $218.4M final. As good as that was for Warner Bros last year, man, this is a Lion King prequel! Lion King is a AAA brand to Wonka‘s AA.

Still, the industry and exhibition has much to be thankful for: They’re not feeling the claw marks of Mufasa coming up short on its $50M projection, for the entire weekend marketplace is delivering a gross of $154.4M, 63% ahead of the same frame a year ago which made $94.4M when Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom led all movies. The 51st weekend of the year is also ahead of 2022’s ($94.7M) by 63% but -45% behind 2021’s when Sony made people go to the movies again after Covid with Spider-Man: No Way Home which propelled all titles to a $282.8M weekend.

What else is going on?

Angels Studios has a Neal McDonough western in Homestead at 1,886 theaters which made $2.9M yesterday for what’s looking like $5.5M in 5th place. It gets a B CinemaScore and 85% positive on PostTrak. Men bought tickets at 53%, most of the audience here from the middle of the country with Cinemark Majestic 18 in Meridian, ID (when does Idaho ever register at the box office?) the top grossing venue with close to $13K so far. We’re told Angel Studios have been devils in their box office accounting: There were free screenings on Monday (which were somehow paid for), and began full showtimes on Wednesday and Thursday, but didn’t report those grosses, and are rolling them into the weekend gross.

Sony Marvel’s $110M Kraven the Hunter now in the rear-view mirror is seeing a -72% second weekend free-fall with $3.1M. That’s better than Joker Folie a Deux trip off a cliff (-81%), as well as The Marvels (-78%), but worse than Sony Marvel’s Madame Web (-61%). Ten-day cume by Sunday looks to be at $17.4M.

A24’s Brady Corbet 3-hour plus $6M epic The Brutalist delivered $128K at four theaters yesterday at AMC Century City, LA’s Vista, New York’s AMC Lincoln Square and Village East. I’ve been hearing there’s sellouts for 70MM showtimes. Estimated 3-day is $314K for a per theater of $78,5K at this point in time. If that number holds up, it’s the second-best opening theater average of 2024 after NEON’s Anora ($91,7K). This movie is an indie feat to behold, an homage to Michael Cimino with a dash of Paul Thomas Anderson. People ask me, “How do I make it through? I can’t possibly sit through a movie of that length.” It’s easy: Espresso up and bring some protein bars. Act one is 100 minutes, 15-minute pee intermission, 100-minute Act II. What do you have to look forward to in Act II? That’s when Felicity Jones enters the picture.

MIDDAY FRIDAY PM: Fanboys may have sat out last weekend for Lord of the Rings: War of Rohirrim and Kraven the Hunter, but they are back in bulk this weekend for Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which is eyeing a potential franchise best 3-day opening, besting Sonic the Hedgehog 2‘s $72.1M. Currently the Jeff Fowler directed threequel is seeing $26M today for a $70.5M 3-day at 3,761 theaters.

Who knew we’d see the day in recent years when a Paramount tentpole would dwarf a Disney one? Some rivals were expecting a very large gap between Sonic and Mufasa. It wasn’t just a $10M spread.

Disney’s Mufasa isn’t feeling the love tonight with $13.3M for Friday on its way to $35M at 4,100 sites. Disney is depending on overseas where this $200M prequel before P&A is expected to clean up. Still a wealthy marketplace for two family movies, even if Mufasa is coming up way short.

A few things — while fanboys are out, families will head back on Christmas. In addition, Disney has competition from their own fourth weekend of Moana 2 at $14M at 3,600 locations, -47%, after a $3.7M Friday. The sequel will land at $360M by Sunday. It will be a fight for third as Universal’s Wicked is also looking at $14M, -38%, at 3,289 theaters for a running total of $384.4M.

Angel Studios’ Homestead at 1,886 theaters is looking at a 3-day around $5.2M after a $2.8M Friday in 5th place. Movie follows an ex-Green Beret amid chaos who joins prepper compound; love grows, truths arise, and a community unites. Neal McDonough stars in the Ben Smallbone directed western.

PREVIOUS FRIDAY AM: Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 posted $6.5M in previews Thursday night. That’s the official number from Paramount. Disney reports that Mufasa: The Lion King did $3.3M.

Those are the best previews ever for a Sonic the Hedgehog movie, ahead of the previous installment’s $5M Thursday and combined overall preview take of $6.25M. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 opened to $72.1M in 2022, the best so far of the series. Sonic the Hedgehog‘s previews were $3M back in February 2020; that movie opened just before the pandemic to $58M.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is expected to open to $60M, while Mufasa originally was forecast to be north of $50M. Don’t know if Mufasa will get there as its previews aren’t that far from Wonka ($3.5M), which did $39M last year, and 2018’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse ($3.5M, and $35.4M). The Barry Jenkins-directed prequel is booked at 4,100 theaters.

Critics are harder on Mufasa at 57% Rotten, while Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is at 88% fresh. There’s already an audience score for Sonic 3, and it’s a healthy 98%.

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Even if Mufasa comes up short this weekend, Disney is hopeful that business will bounce back from Christmas Day onward. Moviegoing traditionally has exploded on Christmas Day, as holiday distractions cease, and continued strong into New Year’s weekend. That said, this frame historically is the home of the mega Christmas tentpole, i.e. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015), Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) Avatar: The Way of Water (2022). Today Comscore reports that 13% of K-12 students are on break, while 81% colleges are off. This moves to 95% K-12 off on Monday and 94% colleges on break before near-100% levels from Christmas Eve though New Year’s Day.

Here is how the rest of the week went: