After the Thanksgiving duel between two female-driven movies, Moana 2 and Wicked, the holdovers will give way to Christmas’ two big tentpoles, Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney’s prequel Mufasa.
Given the teenage boy and gameboy rage, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will upset Mufasa in its domestic opening, high $50Ms to $50M. Some rivals even believe there’s a greater gap between the two well north of $10M. However, in its global debut, Mufasa is King at $180M. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 won’t begin its overseas rollout until Christmas Day next Wednesday.
Mufasa and Moana 2 in its fourth weekend are after the same younger female audience. Moana 2 is expected to decline around -50% to $12M. Wicked‘s fifth weekend is also expected to be around $12M.
This Wednesday, Mufasa begins to run in major markets like France and Korea, then adds Germany, Italy, Australia, Brazil and Mexico on Thursday, with Spain, the UK, China and Japan joining on Friday. All in $130M-plus abroad with room for upside on the movie from Oscar winning filmmaker Barry Jenkins. The stunning animated movie, currently at 61% fresh with Rotten Tomatoes critics, tells the early days story of the lion who will be king, Mufasa, who is orphaned as a cub and befriends a sympathetic lion named Taka–the heir to a royal bloodline. Their bonds are tested as they team to evade a deadly foe.
Here in the states the movie will play at 4,000 theaters including 400 Imax, and 2,300 3D screens. PLFs will be shared with Sonic the Hedgehog 3. Previews start Thursday at 2PM. Already, Mufasa has $7M in advance ticket sales; Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is pacing ahead of that this weekend. Advance sales pick-up from Christmas onward. Women of all ages are the target demo for Mufasa while Paramount has the 17-34 crowd, teens, and boys 6-10. Sonic 3 is playing at 3,800 domestic theaters with the first shows on Thursday at 3PM for an opening day fan event followed by 5PM shows nationwide.
Back in 2019, Jon Favreau’s The Lion King went to China early, ahead of other international markets, and drew a $50M+ opening. That’s not on the cards this time around with that market still iffy and not expected to deliver similar results. The Lion King posted an awesome opening of $191.7M stateside, the tenth biggest opening ever at the U.S./Canada box office.
In terms of offshore comps, the live-action take if you will (even though its animated) of 2019’s The Lion King isn’t really a fit given its outsized performance in a steadier global marketplace and during summer.
More à propos abroad are similarly-timed Christmas confections Wonka ($71M at today’s rates in like-for-likes) and Jumanji: The Next Level ($122.8M), as well as the May 2019 release of Aladdin ($115.3M).
Stateside, it’s all about the 5x-6x multiple for Mufasa and Sonic the Hedgehog 3. Even if the latter comes in under its previous installments in 2020 ($58M) and 2022 ($72.1M), the expectation is that the threequel will best both its respective domestic totals of $148.9M and $190.8M in the end.
Similarly abroad, moviegoing picks up after Christmas as most moviegoers are on break for the holidays.