EXCLUSIVE: Disney/Marvel Studios‘ Deadpool & Wolverine hit six-week tracking this morning and man, does it look amazing. The Quorum, which monitors pics six weeks ahead, is reporting a projection of $200M-$239M, which the service actually believes is conservative.
Let’s give this an asterisk: There never has been an R-rated movie that has opened to $200M, and the Ryan Reynolds-Hugh Jackman threequel busting that sphere would be an anomaly. The current record for an R-rated opening at the domestic box office is owned by the original Deadpool, which posted $132.4M back in February 2016. Even if Deadpool & Wolverine comes in at $150M — keep in mind, it’s not clear if the younger Disney Marvel Studios parents/fans realize this is R-rated — it still would rep the biggest opening for both Reynolds (beating Deadpool) and Jackman (besting X-Men: The Last Stand‘s $103M in 2006). At that level, it also would be the highest opening of the summer, besting even this weekend’s anticipated $120M-$130M start for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2.
Among those willing to pay to see the movie in a theater, the Shawn Levy-directed threequel blows away all other titles this summer with a high score. In fact, it’s the highest of any movie this summer in any metric across unaided and total awareness and interest. The movie also has the highest PLF score at 28% with Quorom, meaning of all the movies this summer, audiences definitely want to see this in a premium format. The tracking numbers for men, we are told, actually are higher than those for Spider-Man: No Way Home six weeks from release; that movie ranks as the second-best domestic opening of all time at $260.1M. Note the projections for Deadpool & Wolverine could actually climb.
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Deadpool & Wolverine happens on July 26.