After a domestic box office that’s been battered by double strikes, exhibition and the industry overall, we can thank Warner Bros for leaving three potential $100M-grossing movies under the tree: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, Wonka and The Color Purple.
However, it’s not going to be a Christmas like those of yore, either pre- or post-Covid, simply because there’s no 10-quad tentpole in the Star Wars, Avatar or Spider-Man: No Way Home sense of the word that will storm the box office. A year-end gift as such brings a substantial amount of spillover business into the new year, and with 2024 projected to drop 10% due to the strikes’ delay of tentpoles into 2025, we already are starting next year on the wrong foot. But still, Warners saw this and remained committed to holding its Christmas dates, asking exhibition for extra promotion on their end (that is if the actors strike remained ongoing).
In addition to Warners’ three big pics, there’s another five wide releases — north of 1,000 theaters — opening by Christmas Day: Illumination/Universal’s Migration, A24’s The Iron Claw and Sony’s Sydney Sweeney-Glen Powell R-rated romantic comedy Anyone but You this Friday, and Amazon MGM’s WWII period rowing team movie The Boys in the Boat and Neon/STX’s Michael Mann-directed Ferrari on Christmas Day.
Post-Covid, Avatar: The Way of Water contributed $283M to this year’s box office (out of its $684M 41% of its domestic take), while 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home drove $231.8M to the 2022 box office (29% of its $804.7M domestic total). Meanwhile, 2018’s Aquaman carried over $136M of its $335M U.S./Canada total into 2019. It remains in question whether Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom can deliver a figure in that vicinity next year.
The sequel, which has filmmaker James Wan back in the director’s seat, has been three years in the making, with some starts and stops due to Covid. Greenlighterd under the previous Walter Hamada-DC administration, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is expected to do around $40M+ over the four-day Christmas weekend. While that’s possibly a lower gross than even The Marvels‘ 3-day start of $46.1M, and many might be quick to scream “superhero fatigue,” there are a couple of factors in hand.
Overseas is much better for Aquaman 2, with a 73-market launch looking to deliver $75M-$80M including China. That worldwide debut at its highest would be $110M through Sunday. The Middle Kingdom, which was a prime territory for the first movie, is looking at $25M-$30M alone. The sequel currently leads presales throughout the frame in the PRC, but remember we are far from the heady days of 2018, when the original bowed to $93M+ at historic rates.
Aquaman 2 begins his offshore journey on Wednesday, with major territories this weekend being France, Italy, Spain, Korea, Brazil and Mexico. Thursday adds another 26, with Germany and the UK among the biggest, followed by 11 markets on Friday. Rollout will continue in Denmark (December 25), Australia/New Zealand (December 26), the UAE (December 28) and Japan (January 12).
Overall, the sequel is tough to comp in regards to its foreign box office given the current state of the motion picture marketplace. Korea, for example, ended up as one of the top offshore markets for the first Jason Mamoa starrer, but it has had a tough year — though local titles are starting to pop there, raising hope. Mexico should count as a Top 5 market this weekend, along with the usual mature European majors.
Note, however, that the original Aquaman released earlier in December and was not hindered by the fact that Christmas Eve is also something of a no-go in several overseas markets.
Momoa traveled to London for a special event to celebrate Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom at Battersea Power station on December 12 and did a photocall the previous day during the international junket. He also attended a roadshow through four cities in China earlier in the month with director Wan. The Games of Thrones alum also showed up at a fan screening Monday night at LA’s The Grove and took photos with moviegoers.
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In regards to the movie’s stateside performance, realize that the new DC administration of James Gunn and Peter Safran has been specific about rebooting all of DC after the Zack Synder-verse, which has put a damper on the openings of a recent string of DC movies, i.e. Shazam: Fury of the Gods ($30.1M), The Flash ($55M, despite all good intentions to make that a great movie) and Blue Beetle ($25M). In addition, Christmas Eve is always a downer day for box office, and since it falls on Sunday, it will slow business for all titles. Since moviegoing spikes on Christmas night onward, any playability for Aquaman 2 is in the long run, not the weekend. To its advantage, it’s the only tentpole that’s out there.
That was a similar case for the first movie, which opened on a Wednesday and only did a 3-day of $67.8M but cleared $136.9M in its first seven days. Aquaman played to a 4.9x multiple of its 3-day to a final $335.1M off an A- CinemaScore. Right now, the movie is tracking more heavily male than among the female Momoa faithful. Previews start at 3 p.m. Thursday for Aquaman 2. The pic will play in Imax, 3D, PLFs, 4DX, etc. There are no Rotten Tomatoes critics scores yet for Aquaman 2, Migration or Anyone but You.
Meanwhile, the second weekend of Warner Bros.’ Wonka will be right behind Aquaman 2 with a 4-day in the $20M+ range. The Timothée Chalamet-led musical earned $4M on Monday for a four-day running total of $43M at 4,203 theaters. Read Deadline’s review here.
Migration is eyeing around $10M for the 3-day and $15M four-day at 3,700 theaters. Rivals are quick to pour cold water on the animated movie’s anticipated low opening but note original movies always have a tougher time. Plus, Universal always has shown its feature toons to leg out over the holiday, with DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish debuting to $12.4M last year and doing a near 15x multiple for a final stateside of $185.5M. Already, Migration counts more than $14M from international plays in Mexico, France and China. An additional 17 markets come on line this weekend including Germany, Spain and the Netherlands. Previews start Thursday at 2 p.m. Families, natch, are the obvious demo here. The film’s production cost was $72 million.
Sony’s Will Gluck-directed Anyone but You has previews starting at 2 p.m. Thursday. The budget is low at $25M, with co-financers SK Global and TSG involved with an outlook of $7M at 3,000-plus theaters. The pic is tracking best with Sweeney fans aka the Euphoria crowd and females under 25, with females over 25 not far behind. Sony zigs while others zag: While streamers have hogged up the comedy and romantic comedy genres, Sony looks to serve moviegoers different choices at theaters. With a $15M start, their R-rated Jennifer Lawrence movie No Hard Feelings is the best beginning for a comedy movie this year, and a 3.3x multiple and final domestic of $50.4M. On top of that, Lawrence received a Best Actress Comedy/Musical Golden Globe for the pic.
A24 is looking to stoke Middle America and the South with the writer-director Sean Durkin’s The Iron Claw, about the Von Erich brothers, who made history in the intensely competitive world of professional wrestling in the early 1980s. The Zac Efron-Jeremy Allen White-Lily James movie is looking at $6M over 4 days at 2,500 theaters. RT critics are at 90% fresh. Early-access screenings at 110 theaters last weekend were sold out, A24’s best pre-sold early access screening ever. Exits were huge, A24’s highest ever with strong showings outside NYC and LA in Kansas City, for example. About 90% of those polled said the movie exceeded their expectations. Overall crowd skewed male and under 35, but women were the pic’s biggest champions, connecting to the family story. Never underestimate A24: the gritty Adam Sandler thriller noir, Uncut Gems, released over the holidays in pre-Covid 2019, is its second-highest grossing domestic at $50M. The R-rated Iron Claw starts previews on at 4 p.m. Thursday. Read Deadline’s review here.
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Christmas Day Monday releases are hard to pinpoint in regards to their weekly projections, but the rule of thumb for some distributors is that whatever gross a movie posts on the holiday, it winds up finaling at 10x that.
Of them, The Color Purple could outperform its $8M for the day with $10M, as presales are very hot for the feature take on the Broadway musical and reboot of Steven Spielberg’s multi-Oscar-nominated 1985 pic. The review embargo lifted this morning on the musical produced by Orpah Winfrey and Spielberg, and they currently stand at 87% fresh. There aren’t any Sunday night previews for the movie starring Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, Ciara, H.E.R., Halle Bailey and others. First choice and unaided awareness is strongest with women over 25, with the latter category well ahead of such comparable movies as West Side Story, In the Heights, Hidden Figures and Girls Trip. Read Deadline’s review here.
RELATED: ‘The Color Purple’ Trailer: Warner Bros Drops New Look Ahead Of Christmas Day Release
Amazon MGM’s The Boys in the Boat, directed by George Clooney, is booked at 2,400 theaters with an outlook of $2M-$3M on Christmas. Based on the Daniels James Brown novel, The Boys in the Boat follows the University of Washington’s rowing team from its Depression-era beginnings to winning gold at the 1936 Berlin Olympics. Like Iron Claw, the movie is making a play at older adults in the flyover states. Previews start at 1 p.m. Christmas Eve Sunday. Forty-three reviews on Rotten Tomatoes aren’t strong at 51%. Read Deadline’s review here.
Of all the wide releases over the holiday, look for Neon’s U.S. acquisition of STX’s $95M Michael Mann movie Ferrari to crash. There hasn’t been a lot of spending, with the movie’s unaided awareness static between last week and Monday. Maybe $1M+ on Christmas Day? Previews start at 2 p.m. Christmas Eve Sunday for the pic starring Adam Driver as Enzo Ferrari about how he made his innovative auto company survive while balancing a rocky marriage and a child with a mistress. Shailene Woodley and Penelope Cruz also star. The movie, which had a SAG-AFTRA interim agreement early on during the actors strike enabling its cast to promote at the Venice and New York film festivals, counts 76% fresh with Rotten Tomatoes critics. Read Deadline’s review here.