Superman, the first movie under the new DC Studios headed by James Gunn and Peter Safran, arrived on tracking with $125 million-$145 million outlook on NRG. However, various distribution sources believe the real range for the domestic opening of the Gunn-directed movie is more in the $90M-$125M vicinity.
Because he’s a brand name, Superman pops on unaided awareness (that’s the category where those moviegoers polled automatically cite a movie they want to see, without being prodded by a pollster). With a 30 in unaided awareness, it’s higher than Top Gun: Maverick ($126.7M). But is that the right comp?
Better to look at first choice, the “definitely must-see” category for those willing to get off their couch.
In first choice, Superman is below such post-Covid superhero movies as Thor: Love & Thunder ($144.1M opening), The Batman ($134M) and Gunn’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($118.4M).
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Here’s the rub: First choice for this year’s Captain America: Brave New World was higher than Superman‘s by 71% at the same point in time. That movie opened at $88.8M. In addition, Superman‘s first choice is 64% behind that of Matt Reeves’ The Batman in 2022.
We already told you that Superman is the year’s best advance-ticket seller in its first 24 hours, with the pic’s Amazon Prime Early Access paid screenings flying off Fandango’s portal. Those screenings are on Wednesday, July 8 (7 p.m. local time), three days before the pic’s July 11 opening. Superman‘s presales outstripped that of Disney/Marvel Studios’ upcoming The Fantastic Four: First Steps.
Sources say that when it comes to Superman‘s opening-weekend outlook, it boils down to reviews. OK, why this film above all others like Deadpool & Wolverine in the post-pandemic landscape? Because everyone is familiar with Superman, and many will make their decision to go based strictly word-of-mouth.
While these tentpole movies begin their drumroll months in advance with trailer drops (Superman dropped its first teaser just before Christmas), like all big event movies the majority of Superman‘s P&A spend will be in the final days leading up to opening.
Superman through seven movies — not including Justice League but definitely including 2016’s Batman v. Superman — has minted $2.56 billion at the global box office. Batman v. Superman opened to $166M, an Easter holiday record, and legged out to $330.3M domestic, $874.3M worldwide. The 2013 reboot, Man of Steel, opened to $116.6M, and ended its U.S.-Canada run at $291M, $670M WW. Both of those movies were directed by Zack Snyder.