Apple Original Films‘ Brad Pitt movie F1 and Blumhouse and Atomic Monster/Universal’s M3GAN 2.0 hit three-week tracking Thursday morning, each with an eye at $30 million-plus in their respective three-day U.S. box office openings June 27-29, the pre-July 4th frame.
Some, not all, sources are seeing that F1, which cost Apple a net $200M (not $300M), actually has the edge over the killer doll with $35M, and maybe a $40M start in the U.S. and Canada. F1, which also stars Javier Bardem, Kerry Condon and Damson Idris, was shot around the world at myriad Formula One races.
When it comes to F1, the rally is expected to be at the overseas box office, where Formula One is more popular than the U.S.; Warner Bros is distributing the movie globally on behalf of Apple. The footage shown at CinemaCon riveted the room of exhibitors.
That said, we’ve heard the Joseph Kosinski-directed movie has tested well, and could surprise. “It definitely moves faster than Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning” one non-Warner Bros source told us. Media screenings are already being held for F1.
The first M3GAN opened in the post-2023 New Year corridor to a surprising $30.4M and legged out to $95.1M domestic, $180M worldwide on a $12M production cost, fueled by TikTok and dancing Megan doll troupe videos that made a splash at major landmarks and on late-night talk shows. The PG-13 sequel is strongest with women under 25 in unaided awareness but also solid in women over 25, as well as all men. In fact, M3GAN 2.0 came on ahead of its first chapter in unaided awareness and in total awareness (hello, it’s a sequel!).
Unaided awareness is that polling category whereby those being queried actually bring up the title of a movie they’re interested in without being prodded by the pollster.
F1‘s best demos are men in unaided awareness, but in first choice men over 25 are leading, followed by women over 25 and men under 25. In unaided awareness, F1‘s tracking is ahead of pre-Covid’s Ford v. Ferrari, which opened to $31.4M and legged out to $117.6M.
Kosinski previously directed Tom Cruise’s biggest opening, Top Gun: Maverick, which launched to $126.7M in its first three days of Memorial Day weekend 2022, legging out to $718.7M domestic. F1 isn’t expected to emulate that long-awaited sequel’s box office trajectory.
Both movies will run into Universal’s Jurassic World: Rebirth in cinemas on Wednesday, July 2.