No, the rest of the world doesn’t celebrate Memorial Day weekend, but with big blockbusters like Disney‘s Lilo & Stitch and Paramount‘s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, they should.
After an insufferable Memorial Day weekend last year in which Mad Max spinoff Furiosa didn’t create any heat, at one point coming close to getting capsized by Sony’s Garfield movie, Hollywood remembered, “Oh, Memorial Day weekend is for massive tentpoles” and has booked one for girls and one for boys (seriously, that’s what it is when you get down to it, despite the blah-blah of overlapping demos) in what’s amounting to another Barbenheimer weekend at the box office — a or Glicked weekend at the box office (back in pre-Thanksgiving 2024 when Wicked and Gladiator II dominated).
The total Memorial Day weekend beginning Friday looks to rival 2013’s high-water mark (when Fast & Furious 6 and Hangover III ruled), which, per Box Office Mojo, minted $314 million stateside over four days.
Both Lilo and Mission will score a global start that’s looking at $485 million combined. Broken out that’s a $275M global debut for Lilo & Stitch and $210M for Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning, the eighth movie in the Tom Cruise franchise.
Lilo & Stitch stateside has $20M-plus so far in presales, which is about half of what Moana 2 and 2019’s live-action The Lion King had before opening (they were at $40M a piece). Presales are ahead of Super Mario Bros Movie, Little Mermaid and A Minecraft Movie. The biggest opener for Memorial Day weekend belongs to Top Gun: Maverick at $160.5M (also Cruise’s record debut), and Lilo & Stitch is eyeing $150M. Best opening for a Disney film is the second-best Memorial Day opener, 2007’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, which did $139.8M.
For Lilo, women 18-34 are off the charts, but Disney is seeing an equally hot demo in men 18-34. Previews start Thursday at 2 p.m. in the U.S. and Canada at 4,300 theaters and all the premium formats sans Imax, which goes to Cruise.
Lilo & Stitch starts its international rollout today including majors France, Italy, Korea and the UK. That’s followed by Australia, Brazil and Mexico on Thursday, among others. Rounding out the first weekend will be China, India, Spain and more on Friday. In total, 50 material markets release this session, with Hong Kong (May 29) and Japan (June 6) still to come.
Lilo & Stitch merchandise sells around the world, and anticipation is high, though this could skew just slightly more domestic at open. The overseas launch is eyed at $125M-plus.
Looking at live-action Disney remake comps, Little Mermaid did $65M in like-for-like markets at today’s rates, Cinderella was $71M and Mufasa: The Lion King started off with $92M. The latter came out during the end-of-year holidays in 2024 and saw extended playability. Aladdin (2019), which released during the same May corridor as Lilo & Stitch, did $108M on its opening offshore weekend, then had crazy legs.
Neither Lilo nor Mission have major holidays to speak of overseas. The UK is off Monday (which won’t factor into this weekend internationally).
In China, where Mission doesn’t release until May 30, Lilo currently leads presales for the weekend. China is a hard one to call as usual, and L&S should top $10M — there’s a “Stitch Encounter” attraction at the popular Shanghai Disney Resort.
Offshore premieres, photo calls and fan events were held in such locales as London, Paris and Milan. In Hong Kong, a “Stitch Arrives” event is being hosted May 1-June 15 in Harbour City.
We expect a mix of Latin America, English-speaking markets and European majors to perform strongly.
After 10 days of globetrotting premieres in London, Cannes, Seoul, Tokyo, Mexico City and New York City, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is looking at $75M-$85M domestic at 3,846 sites. Previews also start Thursday at 2 p.m.. The pic also has about 900 PLFs in a smattering of showtimes. In unaided awareness, total awareness, definite interest, Final Reckoning is ahead of 2023’s Dead Reckoning which did $54.6M over three days in what was a $78.4M five-day total. While Lilo & Stitch cost $100M, Final Reckoning with its death-defying submarine and biplane stunts, cost between $300M-$400M in a start and stop from Covid and strikes. Older men and women over 25 are the sweet spot for Final Reckoning stateside.
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International rollout kicks off officially Wednesday, though there have been extensive paid previews in several markets that began this past weekend. In total through Friday, 64 markets will have lit the fuse on M:I-8.
The main comp here is the last Mission, 2023’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, which opened to $120.8M in like-for-like markets at today’s rates. It was the biggest bow of the franchise, and the film went on to become (excluding China) the highest grosser of the franchise internationally.
Just as Cruise consistently tops himself stunt-wise, this installment of his run as Ethan Hunt is expected to reach $125M+ in its offshore bow. That would be a record for the franchise as the biggest overseas opening of the film series, in like-for-likes and at todays rates.
Today, such majors as France and Germany officially dive in, followed by Korea, Australia, Brazil, Mexico and Italy on Thursday and the UK, Spain and Taiwan on Friday.
As with Lilo & Stitch, there are no significant holidays ahead for Mission. The last movie opened in summer, just before what would become the Barbenheimer phenomenon. This time around, Mission has a three-week window in Imax and runway ahead.
Not including China for the moment as it’s not in this opening suite, Dead Reckoning performed best across its run in Japan, UK, Korea, France, India, Germany, Taiwan and Australia.
In terms of previews, we hear they are doing strong business (all of which will be rolled into the opening number we report Sunday).
As an example, Korea is at $7.75M through today in previews which puts M:I-8 on track to open bigger than the 2023 movie. However, it’s important to note that preview numbers are not easily comparable or quantifiable (in Korea and elsewhere) as the footprint is different with the number of shows and showtimes not apples-to-apples.
Elsewhere stateside, Warner Bros/New Line’s Final Destination Bloodline after a franchise-record debut of $51.6M, is heading for a second-weekend three-day total of $23M, off 55%, while the studio’s Sinners will be off 45% with a sixth weekend of $8M.